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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.