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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."